Posts by Ivan Oelrich

Changing the Nuclear Posture: moving smartly without leaping

Release of the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is delayed once again.  Originally due late last year, in part so it could inform the on-going negotiations on the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Follow-on (START-FO), after a couple of delays it was supposed to be released today, 1 March, but last week word got out that it [...]

The post Changing the Nuclear Posture: moving smartly without leaping appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

Flight Testing a Centrifuge

On 13 January, Ivanka Barzashka and I gave a briefing at the AAAS on our work regarding Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity.  Joshua Pollack also gave a briefing, which he has described.  Joshua’s analysis is thorough and interesting but I think I would use a different distinction than the “actual” and “nominal” values that he defines. [...]

The post Flight Testing a Centrifuge appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

Nuclear Doctrine and Missing the Point.

The government’s much anticipated Nuclear Posture Review, originally scheduled for release in the late fall, then last month, then early February is now due out the first of March.  The report is, no doubt, coalescing into final form and a few recent newspaper articles, in particular articles in Boston Globe and Los Angeles Times, have [...]

The post Nuclear Doctrine and Missing the Point. appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

You Don’t Have to Be a Mouse to Be Wary of Mousetraps

Happy New Year.  We at FAS are a serious, hard-working lot but I thought I would start the year with a blog somewhat less Earth-shattering than we normally do.  The following is the result of some research made possible by free time over the holidays. It is with a combination of despair and delight that [...]

The post You Don’t Have to Be a Mouse to Be Wary of Mousetraps appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

Issue Brief: Calculating the Capacity of Fordow

Calculating the Capacity of Fordow – Updated Issue Brief Posted

by Ivanka Barzashka We have posted an updated version of our latest Issue Brief “Calculating the Capacity of Fordow” – the technical appendix to our November 23 article “A Technical Evaluation of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant” published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. This is the document summary: This brief serves as a [...]

The post Calculating the Capacity of Fordow – Updated Issue Brief Posted appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

Figuring Out Fordow

Last week, my ace research assistant, Ivanka Bazashka, and I published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists an analysis of Iran’s recently revealed Fordow uranium enrichment facility, lying just north of Qom.  In summary, we concluded that the timing of the construction and announcement of the facility did not prove an Iranian intention to deceive [...]

The post Figuring Out Fordow appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

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Iran Owned Part of Eurodif – Document Posted

By Ivanka Barzashka FAS has posted a report on “Enrichment Supply and Technology Outside the United States” by S. A. Levin and S. Blumkin from the Enrichment Department of the Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant, operated at the time by Union Carbide. The document, prepared for the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration, reviews international [...]

The post Iran Owned Part of Eurodif – Document Posted appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

The text under the Iranian flag with the atom symbol says, "Nuclear power is our undeniable right."

Waiting for Answers on Fordo: What IAEA Inspections Will Tell Us

by Ivanka Barzashka and Ivan Oelrich After a cascade of disclosures and official announcements, followed by a great deal of conjecture from experts and the media, the Fordo enrichment plant, Iran’s newest enrichment facility located in the mountains near Qom, opened its doors on October 25 to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections. The US, [...]

The post Waiting for Answers on Fordo: What IAEA Inspections Will Tell Us appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

The Qom Uranium Enrichment Facility – What and How Do We Know?

On Friday, President Obama, President Sarkozy, and Prime Minister Brown revealed  a covert Iranian uranium enrichment facility near Qom. Obama announced that “the size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful nuclear program.” In a briefing , Senior White House Administration Officials clarified that the facility is designed to hold about 3,000 [...]

The post The Qom Uranium Enrichment Facility – What and How Do We Know? appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

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Calculating Output of the New Iranian Uranium Enrichment Plant

On Friday, President Obama announced that the United States knows of a new, undeclared, and hidden underground gas-centrifuge uranium enrichment facility in Iran, near the city of Qom.  Some news reports suggest that 3000 centrifuges will be housed there.  How significant is this discovery?  Well, just in time, our crack FAS researcher, Ivanka Barzashka, has [...]

The post Calculating Output of the New Iranian Uranium Enrichment Plant appears on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.